Archive for July, 2016

1 August 2016

Sunday, July 31st, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: Oil



MAJOR DATA POINTS

Japan – Jul: Factory activity shrinks for fifth month; 49.3 from 48.1 / R

China – Jul: Official manufacturing PMI contracts; 49.9 from 50.0 / R

China – Jul: Caixin manufacturing PMI jumps; 50.6 from 48.6 / B / WSJ

US – Jul: ISM Manufacturing Growth Cooled; 52.6 from 53.2 / B

US – Jun: Construction spending declines; -0.6% from -0.1% / MW


MARKETS

World – Governments Enjoy a Windfall in Low Borrowing Costs WSJ *

World – Negative yielding credits is growing fast / t *


ECONOMICS

World – GDP forecasts for 2016 / E *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY



MONETARY POLICY

World – Timid BOJ Move Raises Alarm for Other Economies WSJ

World – Size of BOJ, ECB Balance Sheets Approaching the Fed’s / b *

World – Global QE has never been greater r *


FINANCE



REAL ESTATE



LABOR & EDUCATION



SERVICES

Prisons – Boot Camps Find Their Time Running Out WSJ *

Prisons – US Population Is Falling B *


MANUFACTURING



TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION



COMMODITIES

Crops – It’s Not Easy Being Grains B *

Crops – World grain glut set to enter fourth year / FT *

Crops – Grain Stocks Growing High as an Elephants Eye IBD

Crops – Craft beer boom sends US to top of global hop charts FT * *


ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

Oil – Market: This Glut’s Days Are Numbered b *

Oil – Market: Rally to resume later this year, demand to offset glut: poll R

Oil – Majors: Low Prices Hammer Companies WSJ / FT / NYT / B * *

Oil – Majors: Capex has plunged to $410b / b *

Oil – Inventories: No universal requirement on reporting WSJ *

Oil – North Sea: Shell Workers Threaten to Strike NYT

Oil – US: Firms Keep Cutting Jobs WSJ

Oil – Iraq: Islamic State Strikes Facilities WSJ

Oil – Iraq: Islamic State’s revenue dives as it loses territory R *

Oil – Iran: Crude Flows But The Money’s Stuck B *

Oil – Libya: Preparing to Export More After Deal Unblocks Ports WSJ

Oil – Kazakhstan: Acts after Romania blocks deal FT

Oil – Russia: Goldman’s Hopeful Call b

Oil – Russia: Output Rises Amid Arctic Circle Surge / b *

Oil – Market: Glut Shows Investors There’s Nowhere to Go But Down B *

Oil – Market: Supertankers turn UK into center of glut FT

Oil – Sand: The Industry’s Bellwether WSJ *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

Abenomics lifts ‘quadrillion’ into the lexicon e * * *


29 July 2016

Friday, July 29th, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: Refiners



MAJOR DATA POINTS

Japan – Jun: Industrial Output Rebounds; +1.9% from -2.6% /
B / FT

Japan – Jun: Retail Sales Improve; +0.2% from +0.1% / FT / B

EZ – Q2: Economy Slowed; +1.2% from +2.2% / WSJ / FT / R

EZ – Jun: Inflation up; +0.2% from +0.1% / eu

EZ – Jul: Unemployment stable; 10.1% / eu

US – Q2: GDP Disappoints; +1.2% not +2.6% / WSJ / R / FT / NYT *

US – Q2: Employment Costs Up; +0.6% from +0.6% / WSJ

US – Jul: UMich consumer sentiment drops; 90.0 from 93.5 / MW

US – Jul: Chicago PMI dips; 55.8 from 56.8 / MW


MARKETS

Japan – 20-Year Bond Yield Turns Negative WSJ *


ECONOMICS

Japan – Strong Yen Could Further Damp Corporate Earnings WSJ *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY

Japan – Abe may have the votes he needs to change the constitution E *

Japan – Election win puts Abe in position to change the constitution N *


MONETARY POLICY

BOJ – Plays for time with weak stimulus FT / WSJ / R / NYT / WSJ / B * *

BOJ – Under govt pressure, Kuroda mulling specific steps for easing R / WSJ *

BOJ – ‘Helicopter Money’ Prospect Has Yen Traders On Edge WSJ *

BOJ – Kuroda set to dash hopes of ‘helicopter money’ FT / WSJ

BOJ – Holds 1/3rd of all government bonds / t *


FINANCE



REAL ESTATE



LABOR & EDUCATION

Japan – Population Falls by Most Since Records Began in 1968 B * *

Japan – As population shrinks, bears and boars roam LAT


SERVICES



MANUFACTURING

Planes – Airbus takes €1.4b charges FT / B

Planes – Boeing takes $2b charges FT

Planes – Air show witnessed slowdown in jet orders FT * * *

Planes – Airbus and Boeing put pressure on supply chain FT * *


TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION



COMMODITIES



ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

Refiners – Why It’s All Downhill B
The U.S. Is Swimming in Gas… *
…And So Is Europe *

Refineries – The Glut Strikes Back B * *

Refiners – On cusp of bear market after stocks rise FT / WSJ *

Refiners – Fuel Glut Keeps Pressure on Profit WSJ / B *

Refiners – ‘A Correction Is Upon Us’ B *

Refiners – Majors Losing Other Engine B / B *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

World’s top 10 largest Cities by GDP am *


28 July 2016

Wednesday, July 27th, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: China Economy



MAJOR DATA POINTS

EZ – Jul: Economic confidence rose; 104.6 from 104.4 / B

US – Week: Jobless Claims Rose; +14k to 266k / WSJ / R


MARKETS

China – Renminbi drops to sixth in international payment ranking FT * *

China – Lets Yuan Depreciate, Other Nations Take Note WSJ *

HK – Chinese Investors Close In on Limits on Stocks WSJ *


ECONOMICS

China – Credit boom stokes growth B

China – Growth sucks in more debt bucks for less bang R

China – Firms will borrow 2/3 of new corporate debt: S&P / e *

China – Off-budget items push deficit to 15% of GDP: Goldman / e *

China – Infrastructure increasingly ineffective in spurring economy WSJ *

China – Millennials’ tastes shape outbound acquisitions FT * *

China – Growth performance is not unique / ps *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY

China – Xi Smothering Dissent FT *

China – Discord Between Top Leaders Spills Into the Open WSJ *


MONETARY POLICY

PBOC – China May Be Caught in a Liquidity Trap B * *


FINANCE

China – How to Decode Stress Tests WSJ *

China – Targets Banking Tool Behind Risky Lending WSJ *


REAL ESTATE

China – Excess Rooms Push Hotel Owners to Cut Rates WSJ


LABOR & EDUCATION

China – Stealing Jobs? It May Be Losing Them NYT

China – Wrestles With Wage Dilemma WSJ *


SERVICES



MANUFACTURING



TECH

Watches – China start-up Mobvoi makes foray into US FT *

Watches – Swiss ailing as shoppers abandon mechanical timepieces B *


TRADE & TRANSPORTATION

China – Joins UN trucking treaty, stepping onto new Silk Road R *


COMMODITIES



ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

NatGas – US Shale Gas Heads to East Asia for First Time B *

NatGas – Surging LNG supply likely to outpace global demand this year B * * * *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

The first new blue in over 200 years artnet / NPR *


27 July 2016

Tuesday, July 26th, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: US Real Estate & Economy



MAJOR DATA POINTS

UK – Q2: Economy Accelerated Ahead of Referendum; +0.6% from +0.4% Q/Q / WSJ / B *

US – Jun: Durable Orders Tumble Again; -4.0% from -2.8% / WSJ / R

US – Jun: NAR Pending Home Sales Rise Slightly; +0.2% / R


MARKETS

US – Why a Fed repeat of 2015 will not help the dollar FT / WSJ *

US – Junk-rated cities shine brighter with record low rates R *

US – Many states, cities, missing chance of lifetime to borrow R *

US – Beware the $10t Glut of Treasuries as Big Deficits Loom B *

US – Debate Over Debt Changes Tone WSJ *


ECONOMICS

US – Sputtering Car Sales Pose a Risk to Retail Momentum B * *

US – Demand Broadens Beyond Autos B *

US – Groups hoard cash as uncertainty grows FT *

US – ‘Wealth Bubble’ Flashes Warning About Future Downturn B *

US – Lobbyists Are Behind the Rise in Corporate Profits HBR *

US – Most and least expensive places to live / bi *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY



MONETARY POLICY

Fed – Waiting for Overwhelming Evidence to Warrant Hike B *

Fed – Rate-Hike Bets Back on Table on Strong Economic Data B / ft / WSJ *

Fed – Getting Real About the Limits of Their Power B *


FINANCE

US – Banks’ Bet on Consumers is Getting Riskier WSJ *

US – Dodd-Frank costs reach $36b in sixth year B *

US – GOP Platform Calls for Revival of Glass-Steagall WSJ / NYT / WSJ

US – Democratic Platform More Liberal on Financial Regulation WSJ / NYT


REAL ESTATE

US – Latest Data Bad News for People Predicting Recession B *

US – It’s Not a Housing Bubble, It’s Just Expensive B *

US – By This Measure, Homeownership Has Never Been More Valuable B *

US – The Housing Market Is Waving a Red Flag B *

US – End of an Era as China’s Love Affair Fades B * * *

US – NMHC Apartment Market Tightness Remains Negative / cr *

US – AIA Billings Steady / cr *


LABOR & EDUCATION



SERVICES



MANUFACTURING

F&B – Pound’s fall threatens AB InBev takeover of SABMiller FT / WSJ / FT *

F&B – Big brewers see strong potential for weak beer R

F&B – Mexican tax leaves top-end tequila makers reeling FT *

F&B – UK Looks to US to Add Some Tonic to Gin Exports WSJ *


TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION



COMMODITIES



ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT



HEALTH



ENDNOTE

The Beer Industry / di *


26 July 2016

Monday, July 25th, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: Mobiles



MAJOR DATA POINTS

SK – Q2: GDP growth quickens pace; +0.7% from +0.5% Q/Q / FT

US – May: Case-Shiller Home Prices Maintained Strong Pace; +5.2% from +5.4% / WSJ / R

US – Jun: New home sales at eight year high; +3.5% / R / WSJ

US – Jul: ConfBd Consumer Confidence Virtually Unchanged; 97.3 from 97.4 / WSJ


MARKETS

EMs – Stocks Become a Smart Bet in a Post-Brexit World B * *

Africa – BRICs turning ugly? Consider CUTEs B *


ECONOMICS

Africa – Oil and debt to define winners and losers B *

Africa – Has enterprising people, but too few businesses E *

Africa – Moving toward massive CFTA free trade agreement wapo

Nigeria – Traders ponder the naira free float that wasn’t B *

Nigeria – A new “floating” exchange rate was fixed E *

Nigeria – IMF forecasts Nigerian economy will contract by 1.8% FT / B *

South Africa – On track to avert junk status FT *

Zimbabwe – Closes in on IMF deal to clear debts FT *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY

Tanzania – New president shakes up ‘sleeping giant’ FT *


MONETARY POLICY



FINANCE

Africa – Trouble is stalking many banks E *


REAL ESTATE



LABOR & EDUCATION



SERVICES



MANUFACTURING



TECH

Mobiles – Apple iPhone sales set to pass 1b milestone FT *

Mobiles – Analyst Downgrades Apple and Says It Has ‘Peaked’ B *

Mobiles – Apple’s Longer iPhone Call WSJ *

Mobiles – Apple weathers anti-US demo in China R

Mobiles – Apple’s China Problem Is That Local Phones are Good, and Cheap B *

Mobiles – Chinese Company in Patent Dispute With Apple Barely Exists WSJ *

Mobiles – China Smartphone Makers Snap Up Patents WSJ * *

Mobiles – India’s $4 smartphone rings alarm R / FT

Mobiles – Google Backs Chinese Smartwatch B

Mobiles – Supply chain plagued by forced labor and armed militias WSJ *

Mobiles – Samsung gets smarter with phones strategy FT *

Mobiles – Samsung Gets Ahead in Handsets by Not Phoning It In WSJ *

Mobiles – BlackBerry axes keyboards FT *


TRADE & TRANSPORTATION



COMMODITIES



ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

Alt – Storage: Renewables Growth Revives Old Method WSJ *

Alt – Storage: Power stored by heavy rail cars pulled up a hill SciAm / E *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

Every mention of 2016 primary candidates in hip-hop songs 538 *


25 July 2016

Monday, July 25th, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: Brexit Update



MAJOR DATA POINTS

Germany – Jul: Ifo business confidence exceeds Brexit expectations; 108.3 from 108.7 / AFP


MARKETS

Brexit – So Far Not Such a Bad ‘Gamble’ After All in Most Markets B * * * *

Brexit – Winners and losers a month after the vote FT *

Currencies – ‘Pound Rally is living on borrowed time’ B * *

Currencies – Carry Trade Wins Again in Amid Post-Brexit Stability B *


ECONOMICS

Brexit – Euro-Area Growth Already Started Slowing Before Vote B *

Brexit – Germany is Stirred, not Shaken WSJ *

Brexit – Corporate raiders seek bargains in Britain R

Brexit – UK May Be Heading to Recession B / WSJ / FT / R / B * *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY

Brexit – Merkel offers May breathing space FT

Brexit – Hollande relaxes stance on swift talks FT / WSJ

Brexit – Europe’s non-euro 8 fear consequences of vote FT

Brexit – Euro-area votes to watch / b *


MONETARY POLICY



FINANCE



REAL ESTATE

UK – London Home Sales Fall B *

UK – Rising prices have kept singles off housing ladder FT *


LABOR & EDUCATION



SERVICES



MANUFACTURING



TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION

UK – Britain eyes new trade deals for Brexit in early 2019 AFP / WSJ

UK – Johnson Says Approached by Australia, India for Trade Deals B

TTIP – Talks Are Faltering NYT / WSJ

EU/Canada – One of Brussels’ biggest trade deals looks uncertain E *

Air – Terror and Brexit weigh on European airlines’ profits FT *

Air – Terror Attacks Weigh on Europe’s Travel Companies WSJ *

Air – Shrinking Pool of Future Pilots Keeps Major Airlines on Edge B *


COMMODITIES



ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

NatGas – Bulls Are Counting on This Heat Wave for a Price Rally B *

NatGas – Oil producers see future in gas BW *

NatGas – Reputation risks being sullied by methane emissions E *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

Active separatist movements in Europe wiki *


22 July 2016

Thursday, July 21st, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: Oil



MAJOR DATA POINTS

EZ – Jul: Markit PMI indicates resilience; 53.1 from 52.9 / FT

Germany – Jul: Markit PMI at 27-Month High; 56.8 from 55.7 / B


MARKETS

EMs – Have Wind at Their Backs WSJ *

EMs – Private Debt Piles Loom WSJ *


ECONOMICS

HK – One country, two economies FT * *

HK – Big Chinese Developers Push Into Market WSJ


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY

Taiwan – Faces obstacles in search for ties beyond China B * *


MONETARY POLICY



FINANCE

Turkey – Foreign banks stand to lose from coup fallout R *


REAL ESTATE



LABOR & EDUCATION



SERVICES



MANUFACTURING

F&B – Sparkling Ice Floats Higher as Other Diet Sodas Go Flat WSJ *

F&B – Big Proposed Soda Tax Stirs Debate In Philadelphia WSJ *


TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION



COMMODITIES

Water – Nestlé Bottles in the Arizona Desert B *


ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

Oil – Nigeria: Militants strike at heart of industry FT *

Oil – Nigeria: Pipeline Avengers Crippling Economy B *

Oil – Saudi Arabia: Turns to Stockpiles WSJ *

Oil – Libya: Failing to ramp up exports bi * *

Oil – Libya: To Resume Exports From Biggest Ports B *

Oil – UK: North Sea Field Shutdowns to Climb as Brexit Deepens Gloom B *

Oil – US: Shale Output to Fall 2.1% in August / b *

Oil – US: The Fracklog Isn’t Growing Anymore And That’s Bad News for Bulls B *

Oil – US: More pain seen as product glut adds to gloom R

Oil – US: CEOs Still Paid for Growth Despite Crude Glut, Moody’s Says B *

Oil – US: Independent producers seek limit on crude imports FT *

Oil – US: Halliburton predicts turnround FT *

Oil – Shale: Depleted crews, idled rigs lie in path to revival R *

Oil – Majors: Next Week Is as Good as It Gets B * *

Oil – Market: Producers Prepare for H2 Slump as Rally Sputters B *

Oil – Market: Opec Sees Slide in Non-Opec Supply WSJ *

Oil – Market: Opec Winning the Market Share War WSJ *

Oil – Market: Still oversupplied, now growth stuttering R

Oil – Market: IEA says huge stocks overhang threatens price recovery R / b *

Oil – Market: IEA sees record Middle East supply B *

Oil – Market: Traders Hoarding Most Oil Since 2009 Amass North Sea Fleet B *

Oil – Market: Buying Time With Stock Sales as Bust Enters Third Year B *

Oil – India: Demand still driven by mopeds R / FT * * *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

Consolidation in Consumer Brands vc *


21 July 2016

Wednesday, July 20th, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: Mining



MAJOR DATA POINTS

US – Jun: NAR home resales at 9-year high; +1.1%, +3.0% yr / R

US – May: FHFA Home Prices Rose; +0.2%, 5.6% yr / B

US – Jun: ConfBd leading indicators rebound; +0.3% from -0.2% / MW

US – Week: Jobless Claims Edged Lower; -1k to 253k / WSJ / R / B


MARKETS

Euro – Trades Close to Post-Brexit Low on ECB Stimulus Speculation B *


ECONOMICS



POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY

EU – Spain: Slapdown Shows Timing Matters When Breaking Rules B *


MONETARY POLICY

ECB – Open to Further Stimulus in September WSJ / B / FT / R / NYT *

ECB – Faces QE dilemma after Brexit vote FT *

ECB – German managers think Draghi is “not doing a good job” b *

ECB – Precision Stimulus Can’t Duck Doubt on How Economy Works B *


FINANCE



REAL ESTATE

EU – Spain: Foreign cash jolts home building back to life R *


LABOR & EDUCATION

EU – Germany: Survey reveals top companies employ just 54 refugees FT


SERVICES



MANUFACTURING



TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION



COMMODITIES

Metals – US Brings WTO Challenge Against China WSJ / R

Metals – China takes center-stage in trading r *

Rare Earths – Honda’s Hybrid Motors Sidestep China Supply B

Rare Earths – Pay the price of previous excess r *

Gold – Miners More Fit, Flying High IBD

Gold – Run Could Hit Roadblocks WSJ *

Gold – Investors Pull Most Money Out of SPDR in Eight Months B *

Silver – Glut Swamps India as Buying Frenzy Passes Country By B *

Platinum – South Africa calls for quick wage deal R

Zinc – Isn’t Cure-All for This Miner’s Health WSJ

Zinc – Starts to bubble as investors pile in r *

Copper – Mounting stocks could weigh on price FT *

Iron – BHP Billiton’s Production Shows No Signs of Slowing WSJ

Iron – China Steel Pours Out Faster Than Ever WSJ *

Lithium – Chile’s buried treasure FT / N *

Uranium – Prices hit 11-year low FT

Potash – China ends market nerves over annual contract FT / FT * *


ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT



HEALTH

Insurance – Justice Dept. Will Seek to Block 2 Mergers NYT

Insurance – Failure of 2 Mergers Is Unlikely to Stop the Efforts NYT


ENDNOTE

European language distribution pre-WWI motw *


20 July 2016

Tuesday, July 19th, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: Coal



MAJOR DATA POINTS

EU – Apr: Current account surplus down; +€10.5b, +€10.6 services / eu


MARKETS

Bitcoin – BOE economists advocate own digital currency WSJ

Bitcoin – ‘Miners’ face fight for survival as new supply halves R / WSJ


ECONOMICS

Brexit – Ireland Hits Alarm in Biggest Foreign Crisis in 50 Years B * *

Brexit – Ireland Pins Growth Plan on US Companies WSJ *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY



MONETARY POLICY

Fed – Traders reviving rate-rise bets put a floor under the dollar B *

Fed – Index Shows First Tightening Bias Since 2007 / b *

Fed – ‘Why they Shouldn’t Raise Interest Rates’ b *

Fed – Yellen Rated ‘Most Useful to Listen to’ in Survey / WSJ *


FINANCE



REAL ESTATE



LABOR & EDUCATION

HigherEd – Student Debt Helps US Economy, White House Says wsj

HigherEd – Boom at UK universities sees construction rise 43% FT


SERVICES

Ads – Digital advertising: Brands versus bots FT * *

Ads – Do Facebook and Google have too much muscle? FT *


MANUFACTURING



TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION



COMMODITIES



ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

Coal – Price rises to highest level in 10 months FT

Coal – Greenpeace says China overbuilding FT / NYT / NYT

Coal – Germany abandons exit timetable R

Coal – As Europe Drops, Poland Embraces B

Coal – Biggest US Private Producer Warns of Massive Layoffs WSJ

Coal – Oakland Votes to Block Large Shipments WSJ / NYT

Coal – A ‘Clean’ Model Runs Off the Tracks NYT

Coal – Consumption, production and reserves / t * * *

Coal – Decline in Three Charts / vc *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

Stick Charts motw *


19 July 2016

Monday, July 18th, 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: China Economy



MAJOR DATA POINTS

Germany – Jul: ZEW Economic Sentiment Fell; -6.8 from 19.2 / FT

US – Jun: Housing starts rebound; +4.8%, -2.0% yr / WSJ / R


MARKETS



ECONOMICS

China – Growing at only half of official estimates: SMI survey R

China – Proves Doubters Wrong For Now as Credit Boom Stokes Growth B * *

China – The reversion to state-led growth is unsustainable FT *

China – GDP Sends Troubling Signal on Economic Reform WSJ

China – Growth Dims Stimulus Expectations B *

China – Zombie Companies Stay Alive Despite Defaults WSJ *

China – Credit Suisse: Growth to Explode Again in 2017 / t *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY

China – Sea Claim Has No Legal Basis, Court Says WSJ / FT / B *

China – Convicts Almost Everyone It Accuses WSJ *


MONETARY POLICY

PBOC – China’s Latest Plan for Market Control Involves Bank WSJ *


FINANCE

China – Banks’ $24t rollover risk B * *


REAL ESTATE

China – Sale of rural land remains illegal FT *

China – Breakneck Development Brings Flooding in Its Wake WSJ *


LABOR & EDUCATION



SERVICES

Media – China’s Influence on Hollywood Grows WSJ *

Media – China’s Hunger for Entertainment Spurs Deals Abroad WSJ *

Media – As economy cools, Chinese box-office sales have slowed WSJ *


MANUFACTURING

Robots – China could be the world’s leading market B * *


TECH

Streaming – Netflix Reports Sharp Slowdown in User Growth WSJ / NYT / R / WSJ *

Streaming – Netflix Price Hike Rankles Some Viewers / B *

Streaming – Now Isn’t the Time to Binge / WSJ *


TRADE & TRANSPORTATION

Auto – The Chinese do not want to pay more for driving them E *


COMMODITIES



ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

NatGas – US exports to the Middle East FT

NatGas – First LNG Tanker Through New Panama Canal Will Carry US Gas B *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

41% of 550 coups between 1946 and 2015 were successful vocativ *