5 October 2015



Today’s Issue Cluster: US Labor

EMs – At the mercy of shifting money flows
Fed – Mixed messages as officials go public in force
Oil – Bulls Lose Faith in Recovery as Russia Adds to Global Glut


MAJOR DATA POINTS

EZ – Sep: Markit Final PMI Fell More; 53.6 was 53.9 / AFP *

US – Sep: Markit Services Drops; 55.1 from 56.1 / m

US – Sep: ISM services growth ebbs; 56.9 from 59.0 / R / WSJ


MARKETS

EMs – At the mercy of shifting money flows FT * * *

EMs – Companies’ debt could be hurt as commodities and currencies fall WSJ *

EMs – Prospects Look Rocky for Southeast Asia Deals WSJ *


ECONOMICS

EMs – Turmoil flashes warning lights for global economy FT * *

EMs – The ill wind of deflation FT * * * * *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY



MONETARY POLICY

Fed – Soft Jobs Numbers Likely to Stay Hand WSJ / R

Fed – Weak jobs growth adds to rate rise doubts FT *

Fed – Lousy jobs numbers: was right not to hike rates e *

Fed – Treasurys Flash Rate-Rise Delay WSJ *

Fed – Investors flee stocks and buy Treasurys WSJ *

Fed – Probability of Liftoff Now vs. Then b *

Fed – Mixed messages as officials go public in force R *

Fed – Low inflation more than cheap oil and a strong dollar E *

Fed – Finds it is tough to make predictions FT * *

Fed – Why some EM leaders say they want hike e *


FINANCE



REAL ESTATE



LABOR & EDUCATION

US – Global Turmoil Saps Job Growth WSJ * *

US – Job growth stumbles, raising doubts on economy R *

US – Economists Can’t Find the Silver Lining in Jobs Report B / wsj * *

US – Jobs Machine Sputters as Global Woes Chip at Growth B * * *

US – The September Jobs Report in Charts / wsj * * *

US – Beaten-Down Factory Worker Is Getting Squeezed Again B *


SERVICES



MANUFACTURING



TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION

TPP – Negotiators reach deal WSJ / FT / R / B / NYT / FT

TPP – Tobacco Issue Puts Pact at Risk WSJ / NYT / JN *

TPP – Rift Over Drug Protections Complicates Talks WSJ / R / NYT / NYT

TPP – Would include auto market opening for Japan R


COMMODITIES

Cocoa – Ivory Coast move alarms traders FT / sa *

Coffee – China’s Changing Tastes Offer Upside WSJ *


ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

Oil – Russian Output Rises to Post-Soviet High WSJ *

Oil – Producers’ Share Sales Get Warm Reception WSJ *

Oil – Bulls Lose Faith in Recovery as Russia Adds to Global Glut B *

Oil – Low prices reshaping the world economy N * *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

Simpsons superforecast the 2016 race t *


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