5 February 2016



Today’s Issue Cluster: Trade

US – Prices Are Plunging. So Why Is Everyone Freaking Out?
Cotton – Bangladesh Set to Supplant China as World’s Top Importer
Oil – Could Prices Jump 50% by the End of 2016


MAJOR DATA POINTS

Indonesia – 2015: Growth Beats Estimates; +4.79% from +5.02% / FT / B / AFP

Germany – Dec: Factory Orders Fall; -0.7% from +0.5% / B

US – 2015: Exports fell for first time since recession; -4.8% / AP

US – Jan: US jobs growth slows; +151k from +262k / FT / WSJ / R / NYT / AP / B *


MARKETS

Stocks – Tracing Oil’s Hypnosis of Equities From Wealth Funds to Junk B * *

Stocks – Tightest Correlation with Oil in 26 Years WSJ *


ECONOMICS

US – Oil Rout Threatens Vicious Cycle for Economy WSJ *

US – Prices Are Plunging. So Why Is Everyone Freaking Out? wsj * *


POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY



MONETARY POLICY



FINANCE



REAL ESTATE



LABOR & EDUCATION



SERVICES



MANUFACTURING



TECH



TRADE & TRANSPORTATION

TPP – Deal signed, but years of negotiations still to come R / AFP

TPP – Senator Portman to Oppose Pact NYT

TPP – Pharma holds key to US ratification FT

TPP – US Election Complicates Passage WSJ

TPP – ‘None of four most likely to be next president in favor’ cfr / NYT

TPP – May Spare US Workers Overall But Slow Factory Hiring WSJ / NYT

TPP – The latest and probably best estimate mr

TPP – Canada will sign trade deal, but ratification not certain CP

TPP – Set to Give Big Boost to Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia WSJ *

TPP – What a Misleading Chart on US Trade Looks Like wsj * *

World – Recovery From Trade Swoon May Be Slow WSJ *


COMMODITIES

Rubber – World’s Top Producers Curbing Output WSJ *

Cotton – Bangladesh Set to Supplant China as World’s Top Importer B *

Olive Oil – About to Have Its Moment? B * *


ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

Oil – Could Prices Jump 50% by the End of 2016 B *

Oil – Producers retool for lower prices FT *

Oil – Industry’s Plan to Keep Investors Happy: Borrow B *

Oil – Texas Isn’t Scared of $30 B *

Oil – Refiners starting to feel the pressure of record stockpiles / b *

Oil – Iranian Political Battles Pose Risk for Contracts WSJ *

Oil – Don’t underestimate the impact of Middle East politics WSJ / WSJ *

Oil – Collapse brings North Sea fields near end of production FT *

Oil – Hedge funds split over outlook FT *

Oil – From boom to bailout? FT * *


HEALTH



ENDNOTE

From where countries import the most am *


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